According to Taiwan's Central News Agency, the problem is estimated to continue into the first half of next year; TSMC has even warned that the biggest impact of inventory adjustment will be in the first half of next year, and the pressure of inventory de-stocking in the IC design industry will also affect the latter part of IC packaging and testing demand.

Looking ahead to next year's electronic technology industry market conditions, the "Institute for Industrial Information" (MIC) senior industry consultant and director of Hong Chunhui pointed out that the current demand has not seen a rebound, the supply chain downstream to the upstream spread of different degrees of inventory problems, the slow pace of depletion, fear will continue into the first half of next year.

From the days point of view, MIC analysis, compared to the same period last year in the second quarter of this year, all types of industry inventory days increased by an average of 15.5% to 25.1%, of which the inventory days to the semiconductor industry increased by 100.1 days the most, the electronic components industry 98.3 days next.

Allianz Investment Trust's Taiwan stock team said that inventory adjustments began in the third quarter, especially in personal computers and notebook computers related to the most obvious, inventory adjustments are expected to end in the first half of next year.

MIC industry analyst Yang Kexin pointed out that the negative factors in the external environment have not been removed, the consumer market buying is not good, the pulling power is weak, customer stocking momentum slowed down, from the terminal, the system factory to the semiconductor chip production and marketing supply chain operators, are facing the problem of high inventory levels, inventory decomposition will affect the semiconductor market performance next year.

Observe the semiconductor field, MIC analysis, semiconductor chip production and marketing is limited by the long-contract mechanism, repeat, over-orders have to take delayed delivery and other practices, unfavorable semiconductor supply chain regulation, inventory adjustment is expected to last until the first half of next year.

Wafer foundry leading TSMC President Wei Zhejia pointed out that the semiconductor industry inventory adjustment and other factors, affecting the 4th quarter to the first half of next year TSMC overall crop performance, he expected the semiconductor supply chain inventory inventory high point in the 3rd quarter of this year hit the top, the 4th quarter began to decline, it is estimated that the first half of next year to return to a healthy level, inventory adjustment factors will have the greatest degree of impact in the first half of next year.

Chip design major MediaTek predicts that customer inventory adjustment may continue for 2 to 3 quarters; wafer foundry world advanced recently said that the 4th quarter customers continue to adjust inventory, do not rule out that may continue into the first half of next year.

Observe the IC design, memory, IC packaging end, Yang can Xin analysis, the current semiconductor industry inventory adjustment, IC design and memory industry is facing a decline in demand, oversupply problem, IC design industry is facing the pressure of inventory de-stocking, and the impact of the latter part of the IC packaging demand, unfavorable to the overall operation next year.

From the perspective of products, including panel driver chips, consumer power management chips (PMIC), general-purpose and consumer microcontrollers (MCU) and other weak demand, related industry inventory levels continue to rise.

Among them, the passive component maker Guoguang said that in the fourth quarter, due to the long holiday in mainland China in October and the Christmas holidays in December in Europe and the United States to reduce the number of working days, and the standard product inventory adjustment period than expected to extend, prudent response to the performance and operating outlook.

The U.S. foreign corporation pointed out that the weak end market demand, supply chain inventory level to record high, is the main reason for the decline in the passive components market, the terminal channel continues to de-stocking, the estimated adjustment time takes 6 months.

In the memory, MIC pointed out that the consumer terminal market to server customers are facing different degrees of inventory adjustment, and there is a high degree of uncertainty in the short-term demand of the memory industry.

However, the industry is not all pessimistic, PEGATRON Chairman Tzu-Hsien Tong recently said that the current market needs a little time to digest the relevant product inventory, and he believes that about 2 quarters can be completed digestion.

The memory factory South Asia Tech General Manager Lee Pei-ying analysis, some customers to de-stocking positive development, demand has the opportunity to rebound, although the 4th quarter prices may continue to fall, but the decline will converge.

The MIC pointed out that the chip industry is facing the problem of high inventory turnover days and is now facing severe inventory de-stocking challenges. If the terminal market situation still does not improve, it is difficult to avoid a price and volume drop. The rapid decline in prices cannot be avoided.

source：aijiwei