September 27 news, according to foreign institutions for the ABF carrier board market forecast shows that due to the low demand for PCs and Intel's new server processors delayed to next year's release, making this year's ABF carrier board supply and demand situation under great pressure, but in 2023, benefiting from the rise in the contribution of Intel's new PC and server chips, the ABF carrier board market supply and demand gap will again expand, while BT, the PCB demand is affected by weak demand in the consumer electronics market underperformed.

Foreign institutions also pointed out that in the next few years, non-Intel camp ABF carrier board demand will continue to expand, ABF carrier board supply and demand gap to maintain at least 15%, mainly because of AMD, Ceres, NVIDIA and Marvell's structural HPC, cloud, network drive, as well as the acceleration of demand for automotive electronics, and the rising trend of China's semiconductor localization.

Foreign investors analyze that the still tight non-Intel camp ABF supply situation should bring favorable pricing and profits for the non-Intel ABF carrier board business of Shinex, NDT, and Kingmaker, as Intel enjoys exclusive or priority capacity support from all ABF carrier board suppliers, making it difficult to switch to other chip designers given delivery times and dedicated equipment.

Although market sentiment is likely to remain subdued in the coming months due to inflation dragging down consumer electronics demand, strong non-PC demand for networking, automotive, AI/HPC, AR/VR, and urgent GPU/CPU orders from China-related sources, as well as a gradual return to growth from top US IDM/fabless suppliers in the first half of next year, can be expected to be a catalyst for Taiwan's ABF carrier board catalyst for production capacity.

Foreign investors emphasized that overall, the outlook for BT and PCB is gloomy due to the impact of weak consumer electronics demand, so they maintained their "Buy" ratings on Shinex, NDT and Kingmaker, but lowered their target stock prices and suggested investors to buy when the supply/demand gap for ABF carrier boards expands from 2023.

source：xinzhixun